CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-08-15T21:12:00-CME-001)

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Aug 16 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Multiple C-class activity was observed
from Regions 2139 (N14E09, Eac/beta-gamma) and 2144 (S17W42,
Dai/beta-gamma), the largest a C2/Sf at 16/0929 UTC from Region 2144.
Region 2139 showed some intermediate spot consolidation while Region
2144 continued its rapid growth forming mature trailer spot penumbra.
Both of these regions, as well as Region 2141 (N15E40, Dac/beta-gamma),
exhibited increased magnetic complexity over the past 24 hours. New
region 2146 (N10E79, Hax/alpha) rotated onto the disk.

NSO/GONG and SDO/AIA 193 and 304 imagery observed major portions of a
filament erupt along a 30 degree long channel between 15/1630-1715 UTC.
The N/S oriented filament was centered near S06W02 with a majority of
the eruption north of this center point. SDO/AIA 304 imagery observed
material movement to the NNE and SW across the solar disk as a result of
the eruption. A slow-moving, partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME)
was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 and C3 imagery at 15/1800 UTC and 15/1906
UTC respectively. CME analysis and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output
suggested an Earth impact late on 18 August. However, further analysis
and adjustments for a slower ambient wind speed is expected to indicate
a later Earth impact closer to midday on the 19th.
  
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low, with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-Minor) activity, for the next three days (16-18 Aug).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly
reached moderate levels again while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux
at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (16-18 Aug).
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor) throughout the forecast
period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by ACE, were indicative of background
conditions. Solar wind indicated a gradual decline from initial speeds
of 365 km/s to end-of-period speeds approaching 275 km/s. The total
field (Bt) ranged between 1 to 4 nT while the Bz component did not drop
lower than -4 nT. The phi angle began the period for a brief time in a
mostly negative (towards) orientation before rotating to a predominately
positive (away) orientation at 15/1354 UTC and remained positive for the
balance the period.

.Forecast...
Nominal levels are expected for a majority of the forecast period (16-18
Aug). However, further analysis of the 15 Aug CME and subsequent
refinements to the WSA-Enlil model output could see wind enhancements
beginning late on 18 August.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated unsettled periods at a few
stations early in the period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet levels
for a majority of the forecast period (16-18 Aug). Unsettled to isolated
active conditions could be present late on 18 August depending on the 15
Aug CME arrival time.

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2014 Aug 17 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 17-Aug 19 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 17-Aug 19 2014

            Aug 17     Aug 18     Aug 19
00-03UT        2          2          2     
03-06UT        2          2          2     
06-09UT        1          1          1     
09-12UT        1          1          1     
12-15UT        1          1          1     
15-18UT        1          1          3     
18-21UT        1          1          4     
21-00UT        2          2          4     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2014 Aug 19 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 19-Aug 21 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 19-Aug 21 2014

            Aug 19     Aug 20     Aug 21
00-03UT        2          4          3     
03-06UT        2          5 (G1)     2     
06-09UT        1          3          2     
09-12UT        1          3          2     
12-15UT        1          2          2     
15-18UT        3          2          2     
18-21UT        4          3          2     
21-00UT        4          4          2     

Rationale: Day one (19 Aug) should see the arrival of the 15 Aug CME mid
to late in the day, bringing in a chance for an isolated geomagnetic
storm (G1-minor) early on day two (20 Aug). A G1 Watch was
issued for the 20th. Conditions are expected to return to below G1-minor
storm conditions for day three (21 Aug) as CME effects wane.

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